Linking a Land-use and Transport Interaction Model with Traffic Emissions: Transport’s Contribution to Air Pollution and Climate Change in Bogota

Considering the key role of the transport sector in the economy and its contribution to greenhouse gases (GHG) and local air pollutants emissions, the development of integrated techniques to evaluate long-term urban trends should be a top priority for creating a more sustainable society. This paper presents an integrated model for reliable estimation of passenger transport emissions of local pollutants and CO2 using an integrated Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model in Bogota (Colombia) between 2008 and 2038. An additional scenario is modeled which considers the increase in electric and hybrid private cars and its impacts are then discussed. An alternative system dynamics approach is proposed as part of a structured decision making process. The methodology uses Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) from systems dynamics to explain cause and effect relations, through linking the transport emissions and transportation subsystems. The emissions model considers eleven different vehicle categories in total and emission factors for CO2, NOx, THC and PM2.5 were established using local data collected with portable devices and from other available secondary sources. Adjustment factors were established in order to account for aging of vehicles, technology improvements and changes in category distributions. Due to an increase in use of the private car transport, CO2 emissions will continue to grow in Bogota (from 4.4 million t/year in 2008 to 10.5 million t/year in 2038) despite possible technology improvements. The green cars scenario suggests an important impact in CO2 emissions but mild impacts in PM2.5 that will only reduce about 10% of estimated emissions in 2038. Linking a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model with traffic emissions: transport’s contribution to air pollution and climate change in Bogota (GUZMAN, Luis A.; ORJUELA Juan P.) 13 th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2 The development of a general framework based on dynamic systems for assessing longterm emissions estimations according with the particular transport systems is needed for effective sustainable transport planning. The inclusion of adjustment factors for aging and technology changes provides more reliable projections and helps identify important long-term trends in the emissions inventory.